Credit Card: Points vs Rebates - Which is Better?

(Unfortunately it's another one of my long, math-filled posts. Please bear with me, there's some good points here.)

Most credit cards let you earn points that you can exchange for rewards. Some give you "gifts" when you spend a certain amount (though usually that means spending a lot),

But some offer rebates - letting you get money back on purchases you normally make anyway.

So how do you know which card is most "rewarding"?
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